Wednesday, October 7, 2026

What "pacing the frontier" really means

 The urgency is real. The danger is real. But the danger is not AI capability. 

 So what if a frontier agent finds vulnerabilities while other frontier agents patch vulnerabilities nobody even thought to look for? There will never be a sustained asymmetry between attacker and defender. 

In fact the most dangerous and destructive phase of agentic innovation is probably already past us. The victims are ordinary people with low education and elderly, mostly in developing countries. Where I live in Hangzhou, you cannot walk two blocks before seeing phone/internet fraud warnings. Voice cloning, identity scraping, and agent automation has enabled a massive wave of quiet, dispersed, low level crime. And that's probably as bad as it gets.

 So why the panic? And why from those voices? Because what needs pacing is the capex driven equity non-correction that has replaced the Treasury as the anchor for the US Dollar. The numbers can't go down without dragging the State down with it. But it only takes a couple of bad quarters for capital flows to start changing direction. 

I use Deepseek and Mimo. They work really well. I swallowed my pride and ordered a 3090 to run ComfyUI. The "backloaded" profits will not materialize. The capex and the dismantling of regulatory supervision IS the there there. So yes, "pace the frontier" is the only way to say it politely. 

 And whatever happens after that, the solution is a stronger American State that legitimates authority and recaptures the public as public.